Understanding 10 Years of The Paris Agreement

This November officially marks 10 years of the Paris Agreement in action. Over these years, new goals have been established, parties have left and rejoined, and greenhouse gas emissions have decreased. Let’s talk about it:

What is the Paris Agreement?

The Paris Agreement is “a legally binding international treaty on climate change.” Its goal is to prevent the global average temperature from increasing over 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with a focus on limiting the increase to 1.5°C. This 1.5°C threshold was created after research indicated that a global temperature increase above it risks more frequent and severe natural disasters including droughts, heatwaves, and hurricanes.

Additionally, the agreement encourages developed countries to provide financial assistance to less endowed parties as an investment in climate change prevention. Climate change impacts have the ability to disrupt the global supply chain, particularly through more vulnerable countries, and can lead to global inflation. It is in the developed countries’ best interests to provide financial assistance as a means of prevention, as well as an aid in saving lives of the estimated 1.2 billion people at risk of being displaced due to climate change impacts.

Through the Years

Let’s take a look at what has happened with the Paris Agreement over the last 10 years:

2015

At the 21st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC COP21) on December 12, 2015, parties across the world gathered in Paris, France to continue discussing the issue of climate change, which led to the adoption of the Paris Agreement.

The global temperature sat at 1.18°C above pre-industrial levels4. Without a transition to renewable energy resources, the global temperature was anticipated to rise to 3.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

2016

On November 4th, 2016, the Paris Agreement officially went into action, with 195 parties across the globe’s signatures. 

2017

During U.S. President Donald Trump’s first term in June 2017, the U.S. withdrew from the Paris Agreement, citing concerns over the agreement’s negative impacts on the country’s economy as well as alleged unfair standards placed on the U.S. to reduce emissions compared to developing countries like China and India.

2020

As a way to measure global actions taken against climate change, parties must submit Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the UNFCCC secretariat every 5 years, which outline actions the country has taken in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, along with their goals for the next 5 years. The first round of NDCs were submitted in 2020.

2021

Former U.S. President Joe Biden rejoins the Paris Agreement during his first day in office.

2024

At COP29, the Baku Climate Unity Pact is signed, which would provide at least $300 billion annually by 2035 to developing countries for climate change prevention as reimbursement for losses/damages caused by climate change impacts. 

During 2024 alone, more than $2 trillion flowed into clean energy and infrastructure globally, which showed the economic benefit from investing in renewable energy instead of relying on fossil fuels.

2025

The following year at COP30, more than 80 countries agreed to a call on ending fossil fuel expansion. Additionally, the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) was outlined, which combines the Baku Climate Unity Pact along with a call for all parties to work towards an additional international climate finance goal of $1.3 trillion during the same timeframe.

If all parties follow the goals outlined in their NDC’s submitted in 2025, there would be a global temperature increase of 2.4°C, which is better than the projected 3.5°C pre-Paris Agreement, but does not meet the Paris Agreement’s original targets.

In December 2025, the global temperature sat at 1.42°C above pre-industrial levels. Based on the global warming trends over the last 30 years, the 1.5°C threshold marked in the Paris Agreement would be reached by March 2029. 

2026

In January of U.S. President Trump’s second term, he signed Executive Order 14162 to withdraw from the Paris Agreement for the second time. Without the influence of the UNFCCC, researchers express concern that greenhouse gas emissions by the country will increase. This is worrying as the U.S. is already the world’s second-biggest climate polluter following China. Out of the 195 parties that signed the Paris Agreement, the U.S. is the only party to withdraw. Based on the U.S.’s actions, there is a fear that other countries will follow in their footsteps, or not fulfill their NDCs submitted last year. Currently, there are only 2 countries in the world that have not signed the Paris Agreement yet, which include Syria and Nigeria.

As of February 2026, the global temperature increase sits at 1.49°C above pre-industrial levels, with the prediction that the 1.5°C threshold will be reached in 3 years. 

This year, COP31 will occur November 9th – 20th hosted by Antalya, Turkey. The conference occurs right after the first major check-in on global climate efforts, based on submitted NDC’s, called the Global Stocktake (GST). With the GST this year and the outlining of NCQG last year, the conference will focus on putting these goals into action and using the GST to guide scrutiny of the NDC’s goals submitted last year.

The future of the Paris Agreement

Throughout the last 10 years, we have witnessed the world take steps forward in limiting greenhouse gas emissions and taking climate change seriously, while also watching some countries fail to recognize climate change as an imminent threat. With the global temperature increase sitting at 1.49°C above pre-industrial levels, the time to act is now to prevent further warming. Although it is unlikely we will stay below 1.5°C at this point, there is a possibility for this increase to be a mere overshoot. By continuing with investment in renewable energy and moving away from our reliance on fossil fuels, we could reverse some of the damage and stay below 2°C. 

What Can You Do to Help?

Although the U.S.’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and continual rollbacks of climate change policies are disheartening, these actions do not accurately represent the U.S. majority population’s thoughts on climate change. A study by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication in 2024 found that an estimated 63% of Americans say they are worried about global warming. By talking with our communities, staying educated on climate change action and policies, and using our right to vote for politicians accurately representing the concerns of the American people, we have the power to stay engaged and make waves.

Sources

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